Why are my* subscriptions falling off a cliff?
(Spoiler alert: it's not Substack's fault)
Hello Substacker,
This week’s chatter on Notes is all about how Substack is collapsing because some people are losing paid subscribers.
I’m here to tell you why paid subscriptions might be plateauing for you right now. And provide solutions.
The problem
Some Substack users are reporting that their paid subscriber growth is falling off a cliff right now.
Many of them are blaming the sudden burst in popularity of Substack, and saying new readers have ‘subscription fatigue’ - basically that the big publications run by famous journalists and thought leaders have eaten up the subscription budgets of every new reader on Substack.
While subscription fatigue could account for some of the slowdown experienced by some creators, it is absolutely not the full picture.
I’m sure of this because there are still heaps of Substack publications that are growing strongly. Including this one.
As a Substack coach, I’ve had the privilege to peek behind the curtains of many small and mid-sized Substacks. Plus, I have my own $30K publication in a weird B2B niche (under a different account), which gives me real lived experience of what it’s like to publish in a space that is not just writing about Substack on Substack.
Here are some examples that demonstrate the reasons publications plateau and go backwards.
In my B2B publication, paid conversions have plateaued. They often plateau at this time of year, because it’s a for-work publication and heaps of people are on vacation. I’m not blaming subscriber fatigue.
In a health publication I reviewed recently, paid conversions had started going backwards because the creator started being very aggressive with their paywalling while also only paywalling information that people can get easily from ChatGPT. That paywall strategy was driving away free subscribers as well as causing paid subscribers to cancel.
In an art publication, readers initially converted at a high rate when the paid offer was first launched, but conversions fell to almost zero after the super-fans had upgraded. I had the exact same problem with my B2B publication back in 2022 - thankfully, I found a way to turn things around and have enjoyed tremendous growth year-on-year since then.
In a finance publication, the owner was adding more and more information for their subscribers in the hope of converting more. The newsletter was starting to feel overwhelming to readers - it was too much hard work for them to make the most of their subscriptions, and the excitement and joy of opening each email had evaporated, replaced by a feeling that the newsletter was a chore.
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The pattern
As you can see from those examples, there is no one-size-fits-all reason why subscription counts plateau. I’ve personally experienced many plateaus over the years, caused by different reasons and solved using different strategies.
There is no simple pattern that’s consistent across all publications.
The people who are blaming the growth of the Substack platform for their revenue slumps are looking at the problem too narrowly (and probably looking for someone other than themselves to blame!)
The solutions
So let’s explore what can be done about plateaus and slumps.
The first thing to do is to acknowledge that things change fast in the digital world, and this means that the systems and strategies that worked perfectly 6 months ago just might not be right for today’s market.
1. Find out what’s changed for your readers in a broad context
In the 2010s, I made tens of thousands of dollars per year from professionals who purchased digital products after landing on my website to get answers to burning questions they had about my area of expertise (this is way before Substack). That business model is gone - poof! - in 2026. If I hadn’t innovated, my business would have folded.
Readers behave differently today compared to just one or two years ago.
They interact with creators and their content differently. They get information in a different way. They have different attitudes to purchases in general and subscriptions in particular.
U.S.-based readers have changed more than people in other regions, in my experience, with a noticeable shift from a mindset of generosity and abundance towards one with more fear, suspicion and scarcity.
So the first question to ask yourself is: what’s different about reader behaviour today compared to six months ago when my conversion/growth rate was good?
For example: Are my readers getting information in a different way, or from different sources? Has the perceived value of information changed? Are my readers coming to me from different places than before? Do my readers belong to a different demographic group than before?
The answers will help you formulate your new strategy.
The second question to ask yourself is about how readers are interacting wth your content specifically.
2. Examine your reader’s journey with you
If you used to have a good conversion rate but it has dropped, you can’t blame it all on general reader behaviours, like using ChatGPT and cutting back on subscription budgets.
There’s almost certainly something else going on.
Common situations I see are:
Your readers have been around for a while, but you’re not offering them anything new.
More of your readers are coming from inside Substack rather than external sources - people already in Substack are more likely to have other paid subscriptions already.
You’ve gradually been putting more of your best work behind a paywall without even realising as you become more confident about the value of your work.
You’ve increased prices beyond a psychological sweet spot (have been guilty of doing this more than once!)
You’ve changed the way you interact with subscribers as your audience has become bigger and more lucrative, potentially eroding the relationship through subconscious signals.
You’ve added too many options, and you now have so many competing calls to action (‘Upgrade to paid’, ‘Buy My Book’, ‘Join the Paid Chat’, ‘Enrol in my course’) that readers get overwhelmed by choice and instead choose to do nothing.
Your writing quality has decreased as you’ve burned out after months or years of weekly publishing, or as you’ve become more reliant on AI.
If any of those examples resonate, make a note of them.
The next step is to combine your insights from parts (1) and (2) above, so you can formulate a new strategy, or make some minor tweaks to swing the pendulum back.
3. Bring it all together
What did you learn when you examined how your publication works in today’s digital marketplace (generally) and how it is serving your readers specifically?
Did you realise your paywall strategy needs a tweak?
Did you discover you’ve drifted from your initial mission, quality or tone of voice?
Did you notice that you’re suddenly treating your subscribers like a bank account, instead of a group of humans with hearts and minds and desires?
Did you learn that newsletters with a format or message which feel too static can get boring for readers after a while?
Or maybe you simply decided that July is when readers have time to clean out their inboxes, unsubscribe from publications that no longer serve them and free up space for something new…
Whatever you discovered, now’s the time to address the problem.
If you realised your paywall strategy needs a tweak, find something different to offer paid subscribers, or a different way of talking about it or delivering it.
If you discovered that you’ve drifted, make a commitment to return to the core of your mission and the high quality of your initial posts.
If you realised your attitude to subscribers has subtly shifted, make space to interact with them again - reach out directly to ask them about their challenges; ask new subscribers how they found you; ask long-term readers what else you could do to delight and inspire them. Remind them that even though you have 10K subscribers, you still read every response.
If you learned that too much same-same can leave readers feeling bored, then it’s time to innovate - try a minor format tweak, new ‘extra’ content, a brand aesthetics makeover, new CTAs…. (I introduced reader competitions in my other publication and it injected all this new energy that I wasn’t really expecting). But don’t do more than one of these at the same time.
If you decided that July is just a slow time in your niche, then go to the beach with a book and wait for your numbers to pick up again in September.
Or, if you are absolutely positive that all your woes are due to subscription fatigue, read on…
[hard truth: they’re not]
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My 4-step antidote to subscriber fatigue
Here is my 4-step recipe to make your publication resistant to subscriber fatigue.
Lean into the reasons your publication is different from its competitors. Do more of what makes you different and unique.
Find more of your readers from outside Substack (they’re less likely to be overloaded with Substack subscriptions already).
Avoid paid strategies that only give your paid subscribers information or step-by-step implementation guidance, because people are increasingly aware they can get that for free from their AI buddies.
Spend more time getting to know your current readers - free and paid - so you have a clear sense of what they like, why they subscribed and what they most value in their paid subscription. Do more of what they like, and make sure they know that you listen and genuinely care.
Okay, that’s it for this week,
Thanks for indulging me while I took a gentle swipe at the whiners on Notes who say Substack is ‘collapsing’.
Hope you found my perspective helpful. See ya next time,
Karen
P.S. Want expert advice that’s tailored to your exact situation? Book a call with me for 60 minutes of my undivided attention and walk away with a bestselling strategy. Book a call.
*My paid subscriber counts aren’t falling off a cliff. Hopefully yours aren’t either. But if you’ve had a lean month, this post is for you.
Not neglecting current readers is a great reminder! And leaning into what makes your stack unique is great advice too.
Well said. I’m as guilty as anyone at commenting on those threads.